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Dr. Ali Al-Mur: Iran Can Rebuild Its Nuclear Program

Published:
June 24, 2025
Category:
Interview

Dr. Ali Al-Mur, former founder and director of Jordan’s nuclear energy program, discusses the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities following U.S. strikes, Iran’s ability to rebuild its nuclear program, the potential risks of radioactive contamination, and the implications for neighboring countries. He also addresses Iran’s technical capabilities and the credibility of Western estimates regarding possible nuclear weapons development.

Transcript

This interview was originally conducted in Arabic. The following is an English translation of the transcript.

Presenter: Joining us online from Amman is Dr. Ali Al-Mur, founder and former director of nuclear energy in Jordan. Dr. Ali, welcome to Al Jazeera Mubasher. The question still being asked, and one for which we are seeking a clear answer, is this: To what extent has Iran’s nuclear program been damaged by the U.S. strike? There is now considerable disagreement in the United States. Many are saying the American strike was not effective, while the U.S. president says the opposite, claiming that Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed and wiped out. Given these conflicting accounts, and based on your scientific expertise, how do you assess what happened? Doctor, did you hear my question? The audio connection was temporarily interrupted at the beginning, then resumed. Presenter: Doctor, if you heard my question, please go ahead. Dr. Ali Al-Mur: Peace be upon you, and God’s mercy and blessings. In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. Praise be to God, and may peace and blessings be upon the Messenger of God. My dear brother, I thank you for this kind gesture in contacting me to discuss this subject, and I also thank Al Jazeera for its positions and its significant role in the media. My dear brother, and dear viewers, the Americans have, in fact, gone very far in portraying the extent of the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump spoke as though he had achieved a major victory through this operation, presenting himself as someone capable of doing anything on this earth and by any means. The Iranians, by contrast, may have played down the significance of the strike, saying that their nuclear facilities were not seriously affected. If we examine what happened objectively, however, we can reasonably expect that the surface installations and infrastructure suffered damage. These facilities play a very important role in the operation, effectiveness, and continuity of the nuclear sites. As for what lies underground, such as Fordow and the numerous enrichment facilities and centrifuges located at depths of 60, 80, or even 100 meters underground, we cannot at this stage determine with certainty how much damage was caused. There is no doubt that the American strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities was painful and caused substantial losses. It may also have raised radiological concerns, because radioactive material may have been released into the environment. If that occurred, it would place a considerable burden on Iran for a long period of time and would require many skilled workers and technical specialists to deal with the consequences at each of the three facilities that were struck. Iran has not yet announced clearly—and it is important that it does—whether radioactive material was released and whether the environment was contaminated in a way that could affect neighboring areas and countries. There must be genuine transparency in this regard so that Iran’s neighboring countries can cooperate with Iran and with the International Atomic Energy Agency to respond to the incident. This is a serious event, and we should not underestimate its importance or magnitude. Now, has Iran suffered long-term damage to its nuclear program? A nuclear-capable country with extensive and long-standing experience such as Iran can, in fact, rebuild such a program over a period of years. Destroying equipment and infrastructure results in financial losses, disruption, and delays. But as far as rebuilding the program over time is concerned, Iran is undoubtedly capable of doing so because of the considerable expertise it has accumulated, the scientists available to it, and the extensive relationships it maintains. What we need at this stage is to understand what actually happened at these facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency should work with Iran to clarify the situation so that neighboring countries can adapt their programs and contingency plans to reduce any potential cross-border impact, should such an impact occur. Presenter: Yes, but so far there is nothing indicating that damage occurred on a scale that could result in radiation spreading and causing harm to people, whether inside or outside Iran. Is that correct? Dr. Ali Al-Mur: Yes. As we said, it depends on the type of facility that was attacked. The positive point is that the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, which has the potential to cause very extensive radioactive contamination, is still operating and was not struck. It would be deeply unacceptable to attack such a facility. Its capacity is approximately 1,000 megawatts, it is located near the Gulf, and it is a peaceful facility used solely for generating electricity. Operating nuclear power plants contain a very broad range of radioactive materials. Some have half-lives measured in billions of years, such as uranium-238, whose half-life is approximately 4.5 billion years, while others have much shorter half-lives, such as radioactive iodine, which has a half-life of around eight days. Over the long term, heavy, long-lived radioactive elements can remain in the environment for extremely long periods. Shorter-lived radioactive materials, however, can pose more immediate risks because of their higher rates of radioactive decay and their more rapid effects on the environment. The important thing is that Bushehr was not damaged and was not targeted in the American strike. As for other sites, including uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz, uranium contains two particularly important isotopes. Uranium-238, as we said, has a half-life of approximately 4.5 billion years, while uranium-235 has a half-life of approximately 704 million years. During the enrichment process, uranium is handled in gaseous form inside centrifuge systems. If underground facilities such as those at Fordow were struck, and if cracks or structural damage occurred while uranium material remained inside the centrifuges, then uranium-238 and uranium-235 could potentially leak into the environment. Such material would not necessarily reach us quickly because these are heavy elements, but if a release occurred, it could move gradually over a period of weeks or months and spread to neighboring countries and beyond. We do not yet know the extent of the damage at Fordow, whether the strike reached the areas where the centrifuges are located, or whether, as has been reported, the Iranians removed enriched uranium material from those centrifuges beforehand. As we have said, the material is present in gaseous form during enrichment. Did they remove it? Reports mentioned approximately 400 grams of uranium. Presenter: Doctor, forgive me for interrupting, but let me read this breaking news. Iranian media are reporting that the Iranian military has issued an urgent evacuation warning to all residents of Ramat Gan in Tel Aviv. The Iranian military has issued an urgent evacuation warning to all residents of Ramat Gan. This area had previously been struck by Iran and suffered extensive infrastructure damage. Some Israeli politicians who visited the area even said that it looked like the Gaza Strip. This is most likely a response to evacuation warnings issued by the Israeli military for certain areas of Tehran. Doctor, based on your experience over the past decades—and given that the Iranian nuclear project has been discussed for more than twenty years—Iran continues to insist that it does not seek nuclear weapons and that its project is entirely peaceful and scientific. That is Iran’s position, in contrast with the claims made by Israel and the United States. If Iran were now, in response to everything that has happened, to decide to pursue nuclear bombs and nuclear weapons, would it need a great deal of time? Or has its program been pushed significantly backward in this respect? Dr. Ali Al-Mur: My dear brother, the basic principles behind atomic and nuclear weapons are no longer secret. The subject is widely known, discussed in books, and even circulated on social media and elsewhere. Iran is a rising and powerful country with broad ambitions, and naturally it seeks sources of strength. At the same time, we know that Imam Khomeini issued a religious ruling rejecting the use of nuclear weapons and, according to that position, prohibiting them. Does Iran have experience related to the production of nuclear weapons? As I told you, the basic scientific principles are not particularly difficult to access. Any country with an advanced nuclear program can, at the very least, carry out computer-based studies and simulations related to the design of nuclear weapons. When would Iran actually produce such a weapon? That is a matter of state policy, and we cannot say when or whether such a decision would be taken. But does Iran possess the necessary capabilities? The West, and particularly the United States, often exaggerates these assessments. Some have claimed that Iran could produce an atomic bomb within two weeks, or even produce ten bombs. They have also spoken of approximately 408 grams of uranium and have said that enrichment levels in some locations reached 83%, with traces of uranium enriched to that level reportedly detected. Their argument is that this would leave only a relatively small additional step to reach enrichment levels of 90% or more, which are associated with weapons-grade material. Propaganda during wartime, or propaganda used to justify wars, is not always completely accurate or truthful. The reality is that we do not know the full extent of Iran’s current capabilities. Personally, based on my experience, I do not believe Iran can produce a nuclear weapon within two weeks, nor do I believe it can produce ten nuclear bombs in such a short period, as some claims suggest. That is my firm assessment based on experience. Iran’s technological situation is also affected by sanctions and by many other constraints. Its technical capabilities are not necessarily as extensive as they are sometimes portrayed by the West and the United States in order to justify military action against it. Presenter: Thank you very much, Dr. Ali Al-Mur, founder and former director of nuclear energy in Jordan. You were joining us from Amman.